Chinese military observers said that if there was a large-scale conflict and had to mobilize to China’s main force as in 1962, the casualties in India would be huge.
According to the Global Times, after a border clash in the Galwan valley on June 15, in India, nationalism and hostility to China have increased dramatically.
Meanwhile, Chinese analysts and some rational voices in India have warned that New Delhi should curb nationalism at home.
Accordingly, India would be more humiliating than what it had experienced after the 1962 border conflict with China, if they cannot control their current anti-China sentiments in India, and if there is to be a new military conflict with Beijing.
Speaking on June 19, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Indian armed forces were “empowered to take all necessary steps” to protect the country’s territory.
“The whole country is grieving and angry at China’s actions,” Modi said. “India wants peace and friendship, but protecting sovereignty is the most important.”
The Indian Prime Minister added that after the clashes, “no one was inside our territory, and none of our positions were lost”.
According to Chinese observers, Modi’s way of saying that he wanted to both alleviate domestic indignation but also to cool off tensions because he realized that India could not conflict with China again.
Lin Minwang, a professor at the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Modi’s speech would be very helpful in easing tensions between the two sides as Prime Minister of India. Modi has dismissed the prejudice that others can rely on to continue to blame China.
Meanwhile, Beijing military expert Wei Dongxu told Global Times, Modi’s statement that the Indian armed forces could “take every necessary step” was a show of strength, to appease the Indian people, and to boost the morale of Indian soldiers.
According to Chinese observers, Modi is playing with words to avoid escalating the situation. Wei said that, not only in the military but also in regional and international influence, China is superior to India.
Lin said that if there was a conflict with Pakistan or other neighboring countries, nationalism could push New Delhi to war but with China, it was a different story.
“The Indian government and military leaders understand how strong China is, only the nationalists in India are ignorant and arrogant,” said Li, “They may be bold but did not dare to open fire on us”.
According to these experts, the reason why China did not disclose the number of casualties was because Beijing also wanted to cool down the situation. If China’s casualties were lower than 20 soldiers (Indian casualties) then the Indian government would again be under pressure.
Global Times emphasized that China is now very restrained to avoid conflict, but that does not mean that China is afraid of provocation or aggression from any country, especially India.
Chinese military observers said that if there was a large-scale conflict and had to mobilize to China’s main force as in 1962, the casualties in India would be very huge.
These experts say that while China has many advantages, Indian forces use weapons purchased from many different countries, so they may not fit together. That is not to mention Indian undisciplined soldiers who exploded submarines while on dry dock, and even hit a helicopter of their own.