During this high-frequency attack, Ukraine discovered a worrying truth from Russia’s Geran-2 suicide UAV.

Recently, the Ukrainian Army deployed long-range weapons to attack targets in the Crimea peninsula and even into Russian territory. On the contrary, Russia also increased its attacks on Ukraine. Whether it was the capital Kiev in the north or Odessa in the Black Sea, air defense sirens often sounded.

During this high-frequency attack, Ukraine discovered a worrying truth from Russia’s Geran-2 suicide UAV. In the wreckage of the Geran-2 UAV that attacked Kiev, Ukraine discovered a Russian-made Kometa-M CRPA satellite navigation chip module. Well well, this represents 2 signs. First, Russia’s Geran-2 suicide UAV and support components imported from Iran are almost out of stock. Second, Russia is using self-produced components to meet the needs of producing the new domestic batch of Geran-2, using entirely domestic capacity.

In other words, Russia is likely to have officially mastered the ability to mass produce the Geran-2 suicide UAV. This not only means that it is difficult for Western countries, led by the United States, to limit or reduce the frequency of Russia’s use of the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) suicide UAV through sanctions on Iran. According to Western experts, the Russian-made satellite navigation antenna helps the Geran-2 UAV have anti-jamming capabilities and higher attack accuracy than the original Iranian Shahed-136 version. This helps improve the combat effectiveness of this weapon.

More importantly, there is a high possibility that the scope of application of the main components of the Russian-made Geran-2 UAV will not be limited to Russia, but will expand further abroad, when Iran, North Korea, Syria and other countries continue to strengthen military cooperation with Russia. This is not good news for both Ukraine and the US.

First is Ukraine; This is Russia’s main war goal. Until Moscow has not yet resolved the problem of mass production of components for the Geran-2 suicide UAV, the frequency of the Russian military using the Geran-2 UAV to attack Ukraine is actually quite limited. During the first few months, the average monthly number of launches was not even 100 Geran-2s. After Russia increased the scale of imports, although this number increased, it only doubled to an average of more than 200 aircraft/month.

This UAV’s threat to Ukraine depends on the “continuous saturation attack” tactic, making it difficult to intercept. Therefore, Russia will actively promote the localization of the Geran-2 suicide UAV. Only in this way will higher intensity attacks on important Ukrainian targets not be limited from the outside. After Kalashnikov Group increased production of the Lancet loitering suicide UAV, the frequency of Lancet deployment by the Russian army on the front lines directly increased.

Next is America. Although Russia is not directly at war with the United States, Russia’s self-production of electronic components will still have a clear impact on the United States. First, this shows that US sanctions against Russia have not had the expected effect, and Russia can still maintain a certain level of self-research ability for sanctioned parts and components.

The second reason is that, once these Russian-made parts spread abroad, the overall performance of the same equipment in many countries that the US considers adversaries, including Iran and North Korea, will be significantly improved. In this case, even if the United States maintains its overall technological lead, a large number of countries, including Iran or North Korea, would also be able to pose clear military threats to the United States and its allies.

It is possible that Geran-2 suicide UAVs will compensate for the gap in military power, for example between Syria and Israel in an “asymmetrical” manner. And similar situations will increasingly appear in other parts of the world, further shaking the global military hegemony of the United States and its allies. Therefore, to a certain extent, once Russian-made suicide UAV parts and components begin to circulate around the world, Russian weapons will have widespread influence in the international context in the new century.

Well, when Russia can export its weapons and equipment to the world again, Russia’s international influence will also spread. And then restore Moscow’s national potential damaged by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions. Not to mention, in addition to Russia, China is also actively expanding its influence in the international community. The two are tending to come closer and complement each other, and America’s strategic space will certainly shrink.

By then, the US will clearly need to worry more about how many Geran-2 suicide UAVs the Russian military will produce, and how many of these will be sold to countries “unfriendly” to the US. And in the immediate future, Ukraine itself will suffer attacks from Geran-2 almost every day.


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