In this war, it is obvious that Ukraine will suffer the heaviest losses. However, the second worst-hit party is not Russia, but the EU.

Members of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service attend a training session near the border with Belarus and Poland in Volyn region, Ukraine November 16, 2021. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Economically, Russia is the top fuel supplier to the EU. This is especially important because the EU is only capable of self-sufficient 13% of fuel needs, the rest must be imported.

It is estimated that the EU imports from Russia 40% of its gas and 30% of its oil consumption. The solution is for the EU to increase the proportion of fuel from other sources such as the US and the Middle East, however, this will push up fuel prices in the bloc, affecting production and people’s lives.

Russia is currently the EU’s fifth largest trading partner (after China, the US, the UK and Switzerland). EU sanctions will not only cause Russia to lose revenue, but will also put EU businesses in a difficult situation due to key Russian exports, such as crude oil, gas, wheat, iron , aluminum, nickel, platinum… are inputs for European industries.

Cutting business ties with Russia will disrupt supply chains, increase product costs, and reduce the competitiveness of European businesses. The US also participates in sanctions against Russia, however, the economic damage of the US can easily be offset by increasing fuel prices to Europe.

Financially, the exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT is actually more loss than gain. Firstly, the damage of the Russian side will not be large because only a few banks are limited.

Second, in the world, other payment systems that compete with SWIFT such as China’s CIPS and Russia’s SPFS have emerged, and India is also looking to make its own system. It will be easy for Russian banks to switch to another system, or use systems simultaneously.

Third, the fact that SWIFT is dominated by Western governments will push the world’s banks to actively find a complementary solution – an alternative to SWIFT. In other words, this ban is a “gift” to great powers like Russia – China – India.

Regarding immigration, the crisis in Ukraine can cause 30% of the population (as in the case of Iraq) – about 10 million people to leave the country, flocking to the EU, causing insecurity and order. create a huge burden on social security.

Not to mention, Ukraine can turn into a “transshipment station” for refugees from the Middle East and Africa to the EU. The United States and Britain, two NATO countries that are enthusiastic about provoking Russia, are not geographically adjacent to the European continent, so they can easily control this immigration crisis. Meanwhile, the EU with 4 countries bordering Ukraine, there is no way to prevent this crisis if the war drags on.

The division within the bloc: In its anti-Russian efforts, the EU easily found consensus among its members. However, after everything calms down, disagreements within the bloc will become more serious, due to the resonance of the struggling economy and the epidemic and embargo, in the context of increased military spending, plus insecurity due to illegal immigration.

Will Germany, France, Italy and the Nordic countries continue to bite their teeth to carry the Baltic, Balkan and Iberian countries? These difficult conditions could be the starting point for the disintegration of the EU, sparking ethnic-religious conflicts in the Balkans, separatist movements in Spain or conflicts with Britain over Northern Ireland.

Decline of Western Values: First of all, it should be affirmed that Western civilization currently dominates the world. Many of our invisible definitions of life, such as men with short haircuts and suits, are rooted in Western civilization.

It can be said that Western civilization includes values ​​that are considered universal by all mankind. However, parallel to it, are the constant struggles from great civilizations such as China, Orthodoxy, Islam, Persia, against the non-selective imposition of Western standards on their cultures.

The war in Ukraine has exposed the non-universalness of Western values. FIFA, a sports organization, although it has its own policy on non-political, has trampled on its own standards to impose bans on Russia. Immediately, this created outrage around the world. A fan, even if he doesn’t support Russia’s actions, no longer believes in those values.

On a larger scale, people also realize that conflicts are still happening around the world every day. Hospitals, schools were bombed, millions of vulnerable people were affected, however, no embargo was issued, because those areas are not NATO allies.

Ironically speaking, the Western media has succeeded in “satanizing” President Putin and Russia, “victimizing” and “heroizing” Ukraine, thereby successfully shaping public opinion in their bloc, but unknowingly revealing their own double standards on a worldwide scale.


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