Hamas launched a focused, organized, and prepared attack on Israel, the results of which were disastrous, killing hundreds of Israelis.

The outbreak of war in the Middle East is directly affecting Ukraine. That’s right, in recent days the western media has hardly reported on events in Ukraine or issues related to President Zelensky’s counterattack. Just a few months ago, the West affirmed that it would continue to provide aid to Ukraine, as long as it was necessary. The reality is, now all the attention is on Israel.

To show Washington’s commitment to its ally, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Sunday that he has ordered American military ships, including an aircraft carrier and additional aircraft, to move closer to the eastern Mediterranean in response to Hamas’ unprecedented, multi-fronted attack on Israel. The USS Gerald R. Ford was in the western Mediterranean when it received orders to deploy. Austin also announced steps to augment U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft squadrons in the region.

Hamas launched a focused, organized, and prepared attack on Israel, the results of which were disastrous, killing hundreds of Israelis. In response, Tel Aviv declared war for the first time since 1973, launching the “Iron Swords” campaign, violently attacking many targets in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military’s heavy response air strikes on the first night destroyed many buildings in Gaza City, causing hundreds of casualties.

According to Defense Express, the all-out attack by Hamas in Israel will impact Ukraine in one way or another, despite the fact that these two conflict zones are 1.5 thousand km apart. It is likely that the impact of these events will be even greater than what can be predicted at first glance.

First of all, this attack by Hamas was not an isolated attack but a planned, coordinated and large-scale attack by rebels, killing dozens of victims in the first hours. In response, Israel launched a large-scale military operation – ‘Operation Iron Swords’, a call-up of reserve forces was announced and air strikes on Hamas targets.

Everything will then depend on what decisions will be made regarding the nature and scope of the response action. Regardless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that this is “not a campaign, not an escalation – it’s a war”. And war can take place in different scenarios. First option – Israel could announce the start of a full-scale ground campaign, the goal of which could be to eliminate any threat from the Gaza Strip in the long term. The second is to limit the deployment of units around the Gaza Strip to create a buffer zone and remotely target Hamas fighters.

In any scenario, there will be an impact on the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Although Israel does not transfer and even prevents the re-export of its weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is information that ammunition from the US military warehouse in Israel was sent to Ukraine. Now, this source of ammunition will obviously not be available to Ukraine, because Israel will strongly object and try its best to ensure that these ammunition serves its needs.

A prolonged war would likely affect Israel’s arsenal, and it would need to be replenished by its allies. Western analysts believe that Palestinian armed organizations have received significant support from Russia, both in the form of training and weapons supply. Meetings of Hamas and Russian officials took place at the official level. Iran provides even more open support to Hamas and Palestine, according to official Palestinian statements, including material, military and technical support. Considering the fact that Hamas carried out a large-scale, planned and coordinated attack, preparations for this attack were carried out in secret. Analysts say it is unlikely to be able to do it alone.

According to experts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Israel-Hamas conflict will reduce the West’s support for Ukraine because they have new concerns. Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that the US and its allies should focus on resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict instead of intervening in Russia’s private affairs and providing military aid to Ukraine.

Besides, there is an opinion that aid to Ukraine will be reduced because of the situation in Israel. This predicts that the war in Ukraine will have a significant impact in the near future. It will be difficult to predict the next steps of Hamas and Israel. Israel is a US ally and receives tens of billions of dollars in security aid from Washington. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has somewhat reduced America’s attention to the Middle East region.

The escalating situation in the Gaza Strip may force the US to return to paying more attention to this area. If so, that would be worrying for Ukraine as the counter-offensive is at a key stage. Observers predict that Ukraine only has a few more weeks to counterattack before the weather turns unfavorable in winter. Furthermore, two NATO members, Slovakia and Poland, have frozen aid to Kiev.

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