Winter is coming, and Russia seems to be getting ready for winter.
Attacks on critical infrastructure for water, electricity and heating are increasing humanitarian needs and could put thousands of people across Ukraine and neighboring countries in distress this winter. Weather factors are considered to have a great influence on the situation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the near future.
According to Colonel Petro Chernyk, a Ukrainian military expert, if the temperature is not low enough, the snow and ice structure in Ukraine will not be strong enough for motor vehicles to move. In this case, it is likely that both sides will switch to fighting with artillery fire support, instead of using tanks and armored personnel carriers with dense frequency as at present.
Western allies have sent Ukraine’s military many modern counter-battery radar systems, which help the country determine the exact coordinates of the enemy. Excalibur smart artillery shells will give Kiev a great advantage in such combat conditions.
Previously, the US has transferred to Ukraine the AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar systems, equipped with outstanding technologies with the ability to determine the firing position and ballistics of enemy artillery. This radar can also give parameters to increase the accuracy of counterattacks. The optimal range of the AN/TPQ-36 radar is 24km. At the beginning of September, counter-battery radars using 3D active electronic phase network technology were also provided to Kiev by Berlin.
In the opposite situation, Colonel Chernyk said that if the temperature drops below minus 20 degrees Celsius, the frozen ground will become hard enough and so the plan and the intensity of the battle of both sides will be kept as it is now. The frozen ground would be hard enough for military vehicles weighing up to 40 tons to pass through.
However, the low temperature will make the logistics and keeping warm of soldiers extremely urgent. To solve this problem, many Western countries such as Lithuania, Spain, Germany, Canada, Estonia and the UK have pledged to provide enough essential logistics for the Ukrainian army. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, the needs of Ukrainian soldiers in winter have been basically met. Tens of thousands of thermal suits, hats and boots are being sent to Ukraine every week via air bridges from all over Europe. With the Russian military, Mr. Chernyk believes that this force will have difficulty fully equipping the troops before winter arrives. One of the main causes of this delay is that Russia’s supply routes have been repeatedly bombarded in recent times. Moscow’s domestic production capacity is also being affected by sanctions from the US and the West. In addition, the embargo from the West also makes it difficult for Russia to import the above equipment from abroad.